Speaker
Description
The recurrent exposure to herbicides in agricultural landscapes forces weeds to adapt in a race against extinction. What role newly arising mutations and pre-existing variation play in this evolution of herbicide resistance is critical for developing management strategies. In this talk, I will present a multitype Galton-Watson process model of rapid adaptation in response to strong selection, capturing complex life cycles of sexual and asexual reproduction and dormancy. Applying our approach to herbicide resistance evolution in a perennial weed, I will derive the probability of resistance causing treatment failure and the waiting time distribution until resistant plants establish. Finally, I will illustrate the effect of self-pollination in influencing the probability and timing of resistance adaptation and the primary source of adaptive variation.