16 May 2022 to 3 June 2022
Europe/Berlin timezone

Stochastic logistic models with maximal capacity reproduce experimental time series of microbial communities

19 May 2022, 12:05


Sophie de Buyl (Vrije Universiteit Brussels )


We analyze properties of experimental microbial time series, from plankton and the human microbiome, and investigate whether stochastic generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) models could reproduce those properties. We show that this is the case when the noise term is large and a linear function of the species abundance, while the strength of the self-interactions varies over multiple orders of magnitude. We stress the fact that all the observed stochastic properties can be obtained from a logistic model, that is, without interactions, even the niche character of the experimental time series. Linear noise is associated with growth rate stochasticity, which is related to changes in the environment. This suggests that fluctuations in the sparsely sampled experimental time series may be caused by extrinsic sources. Additionally we show that adding a global maximal capacity to gLV models lead to heavy-tailed abundance distributions.

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